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CassandraCassandra

The Headline Before The News

Conflict rarely arrives unannounced. The warning signs show up months ahead, and the people living with them see them first. Cassandra is a free, open early-warning system where civil society forecasts the precursors to conflict, and is heard in time.

Free for civil society, alwaysForecast under a handleNo money on outcomes
THE PROBLEM

Early warning exists. Most people never get it.

Today, conflict insight is produced in silos, for whoever pays for it. The people who carry the consequences hear about it from the news, after the fact.

Civil society, the people who see the precursors first, is counted as data. Nobody asks what they think, and nothing returns to them.

We think that’s backwards. A warning should be a common good, like the weather forecast or a flood siren.

120+ million
people forcibly displaced worldwide, most by conflict
UNHCR GLOBAL TRENDS
1 billion+
people living in fragile and conflict-affected settings
WORLD BANK
SIGNAL, NOT NOISE

Conflict precursors, not trending posts.

Feeds are built to reward attention. The posts that travel furthest are the loudest, not the most accurate, and the early signs of conflict get buried beneath them: a price that keeps climbing, a border that quietly closes, rhetoric that hardens week after week.

Cassandra listens for those signs. Every question tracks a real precursor, and every forecast is scored against what actually happens. Over time, it shows whose judgement holds up, however quiet they are.

SOCIAL FEEDS
Reward the loudest post today
Forget what was said yesterday
Measure followers
Unscored noise
CASSANDRA
Rewards the accurate call
Remembers every forecast
Measures your record
Scored, verified insight
A VOICE FROM THE GROUND

Insight doesn’t need a diploma.

The person who sees the market queue lengthen, the checkpoint appear or the tone change on local radio knows something no analyst can know from a desk. On Cassandra, that observation counts. It doesn’t need a title or a following behind it. It needs to be right, and your record shows when it is.

A busy market street in Stone Town, Zanzibar
The market queue lengthensSIGNALA checkpoint appearsSIGNALThe tone changes on local radioSIGNAL
Stone Town, Zanzibar. Photo: Aron Marinelli / Unsplash

A warning belongs to everyone

Nobody should have to pay to hear, in time, that conflict may be coming to the place they live. The people closest to the consequences get the warning first, not last.

Everyone has the right to forecast

Anyone, from anywhere, under a protected identity. Your voice is measured by how your calls hold up against what actually happens.

A record is louder than a post

Social media rewards whoever shouts loudest. Cassandra is a place where insight, reasoning and legitimacy matter more than volume, and your accuracy speaks for you.

TRANSPARENCY AND TRUST

What Cassandra is, and what it will never be.

Not a betting market
No money is at stake, ever. We score what people think. We don’t price outcomes.
Not a targeting tool
We forecast risk to populations, never individuals, units or targets.
Safe by design
You forecast under a handle. Your voice can be loud while your identity stays yours.

Conflict gives warning. Help the world hear it sooner.

Join a community where civil society has a say in global conflict warning. Create your account and make your first forecast today.

Join the community
FREE · PSEUDONYMOUS · NO MONEY ON OUTCOMES